That's basically a 1 in 3 chance of success, but a 2 in 3 chance of failure. Now multiply those 17 outs by 2 and you get a whopping 34% chance of hitting a winning hand. Add to that 6 of the remaining non-flush cards that could make your straight, and the remaining 2 non-flush Aces and you've got yourself a solid 17 OUTS. So, you have 4 cards to a flush already, leaving 9 other flush cards. So, the best possible draw you can have is an open-ended straight draw, along with a flush draw, and add that one of your hole cards is an Ace that if it hit could possibly win the hand. It's the rule of 2 which says that you multiply your outs by 2 (with only the river card to go) and that gives you the percentage chance of success. So, the odds of hitting draws on the river are really, really bad. But, like I said, this is a fun topic and I'm going to write about it anyways. I'm not risking all that much to play with my friends, so it's OK. What? Folding! And then there's Friday Night Poker. And the trade off to fun is WINNING in the long-run because smart poker requires folding and not getting involved in many hands. Many of the guys I play with regularly REALLY like to have fun playing poker - I mean seriously, really like to have fun.

It's maddening because of how much fun it is to play and not fold, but smart poker relies on playing the odds. In my Friday Night Games, I started saying, 'I'm just playing math.' It's really maddening sometimes to know the math of poker, especially the odds of hitting draws (or really the odds of hitting any card). I love this subject because it's the math of poker.

Texas holdem winstar